The rules of a game often determine its winner. With the approach of the Republican Party?s first presidential nomination caucuses and primaries, party rules are already playing a key role ? and just may lead Republicans on a wild nomination ride that won?t end until the last day of its convention in Tampa.
The Republican Party is an association rather than a government entity, making its national rules the equivalent of a constitution when it comes to its nomination process. To be sure, states may want to change the dates of a primary, state parties may change the manner of their nomination contests and members of Congress may pontificate about the process. But for the final word, it?s the Rules of the Republican Party.
Continue ReadingHere?s the party?s problem: Those party rules directly conflict with the conventional interpretation of the meaning of upcoming primaries and caucuses, and next summer may well lead to challenges to seating delegates. According to explicit language in their rules, Republicans can?t bind delegates from a state to vote only for one candidate by a winner-take-all rule, for example, nor are they supposed to allow non-Republicans to vote in their contests.
Given the rebellious spirit within the Republican Party embodied by a tea party movement that demands respect for the Constitution, party leaders can?t just wish away departures from the rules. Indeed, the national convention in Tampa just might take us back to a different political era: one in which delegates act on their power to choose the nominee that they think best represents the Republican Party ? even if that is someone other than the apparent winner through state primaries and caucuses.
Breaking the Rules
At the 2008 convention, delegates gave the Republican National Committee limited power to change aspects of the nomination rules between conventions. To much fanfare, the RNC last year voted to move the first contests later in the year, with only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada allowed to have caucuses and primaries in February. All states scheduling contests before April 1 were required to allocate convention delegates by proportional representation instead of the winner-take-all rule.
These rules were designed to avoid an early victory for a candidate who might secure the nomination by stringing together a series of low-plurality wins. That?s what happened in 2008, when John McCain in early February became the de facto nominee despite failing to win a majority of the vote in nearly any of the party?s contests at the time. His early knockout victory contributed directly to reduced participation and media attention in remaining Republican primaries, in sharp contrast to the spirited Democratic contest that continued into June.
But the new rules apparently were made to be broken. Last month, Florida Republicans scheduled their primary for Jan. 31, before party rules allowed. Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina then advanced the date of their contests, and Iowa moved its nonbinding caucuses to Jan. 3. One potential casualty of that rule-breaking was the potential candidacy of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, as the newly compressed schedule left him little time to build the kind of field operations necessary to compete in states holding early contests.
While states breaking party rules are sure to monopolize presidential candidate time and attention, their party leaders may come to regret their decision. If the convention has real power in choosing presidential and vice-presidential nominees, five states ? Arizona, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina ? will have only half their allotted delegates because the RNC already has acted on Rule 16, allowing such a penalty. RNC chairman Reince Priebus told ABC News: ?The penalty is there, the penalty is going to stick, and that?s all there is to it.?
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